I had previous done some analysis of the NIH K99-R00 program for the first two cohorts. I wrote R scripts to assemble information about the R00 and R01 (as well as DP1 and DP2) awards subsequently obtained by K99 recipients and to analyze these results. I included precise grant start and end times rather than simply fiscal years as I had done in my initial analysis.
The results for the first K99 cohort (from fiscal year 2007) are shown below. This shows the number of investigators (out of 182 initial K99 awardees) who had K99 awards, R00 awards, or R01 (or DP1, or DP2) awards aligned with the start dates for the initial K99 award at time 0.
This shows that more than 90% of these K99 awardees transitioned to the R00 phase and that more than 100 of these PIs had obtained at least one R01 (or equivalent) award as shown previously but now with more precision about the timing of these awards.
With these scripts in hand, it was straightforward to analyze subsequent K99 cohorts. The results are shown below:
This graph reveals that the overall pattern for the K99 phase is remarkably consistent from year to year, with substantial transitions at the end of year 1, a steady decline and then a sharp drop at the end of year 2, and the remaining ~20% of PIs transitioning off the K99 by the end of year 3.
The results for the R00 phase are shown below:
Again, the pattern is quite consistent. The fraction of K99 awardees who have transitioned to the R00 phase is approximately 50% at the end of year 2 (since the start of the K99 award) and peaks at between 80 and 90% in the middle of year 3. The curves are different for the FY2010, FY2011, and FY12 K99 cohorts since they have not yet had time to fully transition, but the curves look quite similar for the regions that overlap the other curves.
The final curve shows the transition to R01 awards (I also included DP1 (Pioneer) and DP2 (New Innovator) awards).
Here, the curves are more different. For the first (FY2007) cohort, more than 50% of the K99 awardees have transitioned to R01 funding. More than 40% of the FY2008 cohort have transitioned, but comparison of the FY2007 and FY2008 curves suggests that this cohort is transitioning more slowly or will not achieve the same level of the FY2007 cohort. This trend continues with the FY2009 cohort. Of course, these attempted transitions to R01 funding are occurring over the period where the overall number of NIH supported PIs dropped (as revealed in my previous post). The FY2010 cohort showed an initial burst above the FY2008 and FY2009 curves but has slowed since then. It is too early to say much about the FY2011 and FY2012 cohorts.
The ability to analyze these data in kinetic detail with relative ease allowed some comparisons that were much harder to make in my previous analysis. I am impressed with the continuing development of R by a large open community (especially Hadley Wickham) that are making R an ever-more-powerful tool.